Adventures of Taas

Since everyone is doing it I figured I’d throw my 2010 predictions out there…  Let’s start with my biggest hope for 2010:

Final Fantasy 14: The game will release in late summer (September) and will be a surprising success in terms of first month sales.  Cataclysm will hit in November causing a tourist exit from FF14 but when the dust settles FF14 will be the first post WoW MMO to have >500k stable subscriptions six months after launch.  2010 will see much written about the impending death of FF11 but that we will have to wait until 2011 to see.  What prolongs the life of FF11 is a hard core player’s rebuke of FF14’s more casual feature set.

World of Warcraft: Cataclysm will hit in November.  The sales will break previous records held by blizzard but this will be the last WoW expansion to see record breaking success.  The churn cycle behind the expansion will be faster then usual for two reasons:

1) The dungeon finder and frost badge gear reset will have pushed a gear cycle too quickly (and for the third time within a single expansion) … this will cause the predictable “same old, same old” criticism of the expansion to gain traction with more people as they realize they are back on the gear treadmill again with a smaller amount of content to consume rehitting level cap (most folks will quickly point that there is new content in the form of the new races but I think wow’s “Core gamer” crowd (those players just short of hard core due to life style, time available to play, etc) will be less interested in this content once they get out of the starting areas)

2) Viable alternatives will exist with FF14 and more importantly with SW:TOR releasing Q1 of 2011

Star Wars: TOR: The game will not see the light of day in 2010.  EA will do the math, reflect on what happened to WAR when it went up against a WoW Expansion and quickly make a strategic decision to launch post WoW:CAT.

Richard Garriot: The spiritual successor to Ultima Online will be announced with very little detail attached in 2010.  Richard Garriot will be at the helm and some familiar faces will return (Koster, Vogel?, Long, etc).  My long shot guess with this one is that EA will be involved and this will be Paul Burnet’s next project.

Blizzard’s Next MMO: A maybe for the next Blizzcon.  I give this low odds of being announced in 2010.

Everquest Next: A maybe for the next Fan Faire.  I think we might start seeing details this year…

Closures: 2010 will not be as brutal as 2009 for MMO closures however some will fall.  Lineage 2 will be the largest closure.  SWG, to everyone’s surprise, will survive to see 2011.  2010 will be more about closure speculation within communities which will set the stage for self fulfilling prophecies in 2011: Warhammer Online, City of Heroes, Dark Age of Camelot, Vanguard, and Pirates of the Burning Sea will all have rough years in this regard.  (If I have one long shot prediction here it is that Vanguard closes this year after the community more or less implodes in Q2 after their dev support almost completely dries up)

There it is… what are your thoughts?

My recent MMO burn out has been well documented on this blog in recent months.  One of the things I’ve been considering in the three weeks since my MMO break began is how a genre I once held above all others has lost its shine for me.

I think looking back at it now one of the number one things that has pushed me to this point where I needed to disconnect myself from the genre completely is choice.  From June to November of this year I was steadily playing Warhammer Online pretty much exclusively and it was only when my interest in WAR started to drop off and I went in to tourist mode I really started to feel the effects of burn out.

It is odd to single out choice as one of the flaws with the genre as it is at the same time it’s greatest strength.  Thinking now of the time where you either played Ultima Online or Everquest is rather odd as today if you look at MMORPG.com’s game list the sheer amount of games available is awesome.  The problem is these games do require a certain amount of commitment and attention and that choice of games (that really are not all that different from each other) makes the potential for tourist-distraction/MMOADHD sinking in that much greater.

The problem is the games are all very similar – they each have those little things that make them different but the bulk of Triple-A titles today are based on the EQ->WoW model.  This really becomes an issue when you hit a bit of a rough patch with your current game – a sort of grass is greener on the other side mentality kicks in and instead of staying focused on the goals within your current game you flee to another game where similar rough patches await you.

Periods of anxiety and doubt are part of the psyche of an MMO player.  It’s not all a cake walk – unfortunately the game developers haven’t found ways to get rid of hell levels or grind points and sometimes it can be very difficult to get past these barriers.

The point of this post is to help me realign my thinking (and to help those going through the same burn out as myself).  So, what do you do about it?

My first suggestion is to use microgoals – Microgoals in my mind dates back to the FFXI Allakhazam community.  They used to put small milestones (such as ‘level cooking to to 20′ or ‘unlock bard’) in their forum signatures to show what they were working on.  By establishing goals within the bigger picture of the level treadmill of the common MMO today you can set things you can do in a single sitting or weekend of gaming.

Limit yourself to one MMO account – I have rationalized again and again (I think I’ve even blogged about it in the past) that it is possible to play more then one MMO at a time.  No.  It is not.  The time, energy and focus commitment required of an MMO just cannot be spread across two games.  There are plenty of people out there who will disagree with this but I just do not see how it is possible.  I believe you need to stay tuned to the game world you are in and stay focused on it.  I know some folks who are at end-game in their given MMO will take on a second MMO “between raids” but I would argue you just are not getting all that much out of your main game it might be time to reevaluate your subscription to what you view as your main game.  The point here is focus is required – and you just can’t focus playing two or more MMOs at once.

Be a part of the community.  Be social, join a guild, do some grouping, post on some forums.  Developing emotional attachment to the community you are a member of will help you stay focused on the game.  One potential pitfall here – many people will stay in an MMO well beyond their expiration date in that game because of people.  People can only be one of several factors you consider when deciding to stay or go from your current game of choice.  If you personally are not having fun but stay just for people the burn out will come eventually anyway and the odds are increased that your quitting the game will be permanent go up the longer you stay for bad reasons.

Maintain a list of MMOs you are “done with” and stick with it – Because of the emotional investment in these games nostalgia can be a hell of a pull.  With some games though you hit a point where you’ve just been there done that.  Even if an expansion comes and adds more content it will just be more of the same if the mechanics don’t change.  Be honest with yourself and if you have a game or list of games like this that you just will never have fun with again DO NOT go back.  During lulls in new game / expansion releases it is tempting to go back to these games but you will likely only waste your time and money.

I think by following the above advice I personally could figure out a way to enjoy these games again.  I hope by sharing it someone out there can put their own burnout in to perspective and maybe find their way back to MMOs.

This coming November one of the most important elections in modern history will occur in the United States. For Americans & others around the world who play MMOs November 4th isn’t the only big day of the month – November 18th marks one of the biggest release days in the genre’s history – I can’t think of a time when THREE MMOs launched expansions on the same day.

I of course am talking about the new expansions of World of Warcraft (Wrath of the Lich King), Everquest 2 (The Shadow Odyssey) and Lord of the Rings Online (Mines of Moria). Now I could go on about the feature sets and where I think these expansions will take the game OR I could question the sanity of Turbine and SOE for going up against Wrath BUT I have a much more selfish motive for this post.

Truth be told I’m having a blast in Warhammer Online but something is missing. There is a bit of a PvE gap in the game (its the best PvP game I’ve ever played – without a doubt) despite having some great dungeons, etc you just don’t get the epic dungeon raid feeling you get in other PvE focused MMOs. So WAR has my really keen on playing MMOs again but it was awoken a PvE itch within me.

So here is my dilemma and I ask for your help: I’m really torn between two games to scratch this itch; Everquest 2 or World of Warcraft. While LOTRO is enticing with its story driven gameplay the classes, etc have never really clicked with me (queue Jim telling me how wonderful the expansions classes are).

I see positives on both sides and they actually end up as good counter points to eachother.

Everquest 2 I have a level 80 character who I could pick up tomorrow and resume raiding with but in all honesty I’d likely want to get a new character to 80. In World of Warcraft I really have nothing going, a level 50 something pally who I have very little desire to play with – so I’d be starting new there as well.

With EQ2 I’d be entering familiar territory that I have trodden all over. I know what the game offers and I know I can expect fun for what I put in to it. With World of Warcraft I’ve done the early to mid game but I know it has a lot of PvE raid/dungeon depth especially with the expansion coming down the pipe introducing a very viable end game 10-man path of progression.

So here is what I see as the pros and cons:

Everquest 2:
+ Know I like the end/raiding game
+ Have a character at end game I could pick up and play the new expansion right away
+ I have a great guild to go to
- Itemization in EQ2 just isn’t as cool as WoW – You’ll never look like an insane badass also there isn’t as much tiering of the gear. As someone who is looking to raid with this whole shebang this is a minus for EQ2
- I’ve been there and done that

World of Warcraft:
+ The game has great looking gear and has great raiding progression
+ I’ve never done the end game before
+ WoW is probably the ultimate raiding game in the PvE-Raid-Centric sub genre
- I’ve done the early and mid game and while its fun I suspect getting from around 50 to 58 (where you can enter BC) is going to be a nose down challenge
- I have no guild in WoW. If I decide to play Horde (><) I do have Chris and his buddies which should work out fine – but when you contrast the potential vs the reality of my long running relationship with LOTIL in EQ2 its hard to not ding WoW a little bit here

So there – I thought putting that plus and minus list together would help me make a decision but alas I am no closer to an answer. So I throw it out to you guys. What are your thoughts. Any +’s or -’s you’d add to either game?

Either way – I’ll be doing SOMETHING come November 18th.