Adventures of Taas

2010 Prediction Review

by on Jan.01, 2011, under Industry Musings

It is that time of year again – time to make some predictions about the year to come, BUT FIRST let’s review where we landed with last year’s predictions.

My major predictions for 2010 in summary:

  • FFXIV would be good and buck the recent trend of high churn rates after launch.  WRONG
  • WoW Expansion.  Would be a hit.  CORRECT (like stealing candy from a baby this one)
  • WoW Expansion.  Will churn quickly.  I can’t claim correct on this one yet but there is a murmur that is palpable within the community that people are ripping through the content of this expansion.  Early indications are also that Blizzard is about to speed up their expansion release cycle, I’d say more or less I’m going to end up CORRECT on this one.
  • SW:TOR will not release in 2010.  CORRECT
  • Richard Garriot.  UO spiritual successor to be announced.  WRONG; instead he’s working on niche projects in the facebook-game space.  I should have known crazy ol’ RG would disappoint with some waste of time.
  • Paul Barnet.  Would be involved with Garriot’s new project.  WRONG. Instead he’s working on EA’s shite casual social games (Lords of Ultima, etc).
  • Blizzard MMO2.0.  A Maybe for blizzcon but low odds for announcement in 2010.  CORRECT
  • Everquest Next.  Details begin to emerge.  I’ll take a CORRECT on this.  We are starting to see concept art and Smed is slowly turning up the volume on the community speculation engine
  • Closures.  2010 would surprise everyone and be light on closures.  Lineage 2 would be an exception.  The lack of closures in 2010 will set the stage for a depressing 2011.  Mostly CORRECT, minus a point for Lineage 2 (however it is on deaths door)

Not bad for 2010.

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